The recent experimental evaluation of the U.S. Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) program found negative effects of training on the earnings of disadvantaged male youth and no effect on the earnings of disadvantaged female youth. These findings provided justification for Congress to cut the budget of JTPA's youth component by over 80 percent. This paper examines the sensitivity of the experimental impact estimates along several dimensions of construction and interpretation. The authors find that the statistical significance of the male youth estimates is extremely fragile and that the magnitudes of the estimates for both youth groups are sensitive to nearly all the factors they consider. In particular, accounting for experimental control group members who substitute training from other providers leads to a much more positive picture regarding the effectiveness of JTPA classroom training. This study indicates the value of sensitivity analyses in experimental evaluations and illustrates that experimental impact estimates, like those from nonexperimental analyses, require careful interpretation if they are to provide a reliable guide to policymakers.
Bibliography: Heckman, James J. and Jeffrey A. Smith. 1997. "Sensitivity of Experimental Impact Estimates: Evidence from the National JTPA Study." NBER Working Paper 6105 (July), National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
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